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DECEMBER 30, 2005 - Seed Speculation
Two straight overtime wins for the Flyers extended their winning streak to five games, and their Atlantic Division lead over the Rangers to five points (with a game in hand). With Philadelphia pulling ahead, the hope for a division championship is beginning to fade, and in its place is a need to secure a playoff spot. For the glass-half-empty Ranger fan, we will try to see what teams could legitimately catapult beyond the Blueshirts in case of an absolute collapse. For the sake of this argument, we will lower the bar so substantially that we approach this discussion expecting New York to be clawing for the eighth and final playoff spot.
We have discussed the likely point total (92) a team will need, and currently the Rangers are on a pace to end the season with about 104. One tangible way of looking at New York's chances concerning the playoff layout, would be to examine exactly which teams they are contending with.
There are 15 teams in the Eastern conference vying for 8 spots. Seeds 1, 2, and 3 are allotted to the three division winners. That means if the Rangers finish behind Philadelphia, regardless of records, the best they can rank is fourth in the conference. Ottawa, first in the Northeast, is widely regarded as the best team in the NHL and will likely finish first in the East. Since we are considering the Rangers to be battling for 8th, we can award the East to Philadelphia. Carolina is way out in front of Tampa Bay, and it is becoming more probable that Carolina will take the Southeast divisional crown.
1) Ottawa 2) Philadelphia 3) Carolina
That is how it looks today, and for the purpose of this article we will pencil those three teams in. It is an extremely safe bet that they will all be in the post-season if not ranked at the top of their respective divisions. Aside from the division leaders, the Sabres would also appear to be a lock for one of the remaining 5 spots. Despite dropping last night's game in a shoot-out to the Leafs, Buffalo has been on an incredible run-- registering just two regulation losses in their last twenty games (16-2-2). With the Sabres in the same division as the Senators, a first-place finish is practically impossible, but a spot in the playoffs is almost a forgone conclusion.
We can definitely rule out the Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals. Both teams would need a miracle to overcome the atrocious starts both teams have had, and there has not been any indication that either team is capable of rising above their current locations, in the cellars of their respective divisions. The Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins are two more teams to cross of this hypothetical list. Florida trails the Rangers by 15 points, and the Bruins are 16 back of the Blueshirts.
This leaves 7 teams competing for the 4 remaining spots. Montreal and Tampa Bay are strong favorites to make the cut. If we label those two as playoff teams, we find the Rangers along with Toronto, Atlanta, New Jersey, and the Islanders fighting over 7th and 8th. Toronto is a half a dozen games over .500 and has the makings of a team that should reach the playoffs without too much difficulty. Although Atlanta is on quite a run now (6-1-3 in their last 10), their suspect goaltending has slowed them through much of the first half. Unreliability at such a crucial position is something that will could hold them down. Some very talented players up front give them an outside shot. The Devils and Islanders are both average one point for every game they've played, but one loss for every win is not going to be nearly enough come April.
Teams like the Islanders, Devils, and Thrashers haven't had the consistency in goal like Henrik Lundqvist has given the Rangers. Certainly Martin Brodeur is a world-class goalie, but with very poor defense, and little or no offensive support, his team is in dire straights. None of those three teams posses a player as dominant as Jaromir Jagr, however Atlanta's Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Hossa are very close. But again, Atlanta is lacking so greatly in other areas that besting the Rangers seems somewhat unattainable. The Islanders are a team in direct competition with the Rangers and may arguably have greater depth at Forward, but DiPietro's erratic goaltending paired with the team's putrid defense makes them an extreme underdog. Wednesday night's 6-2 loss didn't do them any favors either. Even the most pessimistic fan would have to believe the Rangers are a virtual shoe-in for the second season.